billboard BREAKDOWN - hot 100 - march 30, 2024

Weeks like this always feel a bit strange to discuss, because it’s very clearly transitional. Next week Future and Metro Boomin have an album bomb coming plus bonus tracks from Olivia Rodrigo’s GUTS re-release, so it’s going to be a busy week, with enough new songs that it could easily reshape the entire Hot 100 even if the UMG / TikTok feud impacts all of it - and incidentally, if you’re sick of me bringing it up, that’s not going to change. It has impacted the majority of the mainstream music industry in some capacity, with observable impact to the Hot 100, including the artists you say you care about; there are people I know personally who have lost work and tangible money from this executive dickwaving contest, and I’m in the fortunate position where I can cover it at length in comparison with media that doesn’t want risk relationships. The Billboard Hot 100 might be a sloppily maintained, intensely compromised industry farce… but there are people caught within that system where this shit impacts their lives, and my and your attention is deserved.

So let’s get to the top 10, and what I’ve been predicting in some form for weeks now: ‘Lose Control’ by Teddy Swims has finally taken the #1. Let’s make this abundantly clear, it’s not a strong #1: it doesn’t have the top spot in sales, streaming, or the radio, the last of which is probably driving the most… but that’s the power of having just enough in every category at least for one week; Future, Metro Boomin, and Kendrick are coming next week and it won’t be close. And yet it was enough to beat out ‘Beautiful Things’ by Benson Boone at #2, where he actually has better sales and streaming, but lags enough on the radio that he couldn’t close that margin. Next we saw the slight dropoff for ‘we can’t be friends (wait for your love)’ by Ariana Grande slipping from the top to #3, where dominance in streaming is supported by real radio traction; it’ll be interesting to see how much momentum this’ll have minus TikTok traction and the album bombs coming, we’ll have to see. But it was enough to hold over ‘Lovin On Me’ by Jack Harlow at #4, which has slipped into radio freefall but had a good enough streaming week to actually jump over ‘Carnival’ by Kanye West, Ty Dolla $ign, Rich The Kid and Playboi Carti at #5 - turns out when all you have is streaming, it’s hard to gain any additional traction, it’s probably going fall off even harder next week. What’s actually holding steady is ‘Texas Hold’Em’ by Beyonce at #6, as good sales and the radio surge has really shored up losses on streaming… which takes us to ‘I Remember Everything’ by Zach Bryan and Kacey Musgravest at #7, which does surprise me as the radio didn’t pick up and it only saw marginal streaming gains… maybe because Kacey Musgraves’ album dropped and it got some sympathetic streams? Either way, it jumped over ‘greedy’ by Tate McRae at #8 - when all you really have is radio on the downswing, that’ll happen - and that takes us to our new debut in the top 10: ‘Enough (Miami)’ by Cardi B at #9. And in this case it looks like Atlantic is playing their cards shrewdly: sales were dominant, but streaming was a bit sluggish and the radio push has already started; we’ll get into the song itself later on but this looks like she’s in album mode… finally! And to end this off, ‘Cruel Summer’ by Taylor Swift snagged #10 again because it had a decent enough week not losing in all channels to hold over stuff falling past it.

That naturally takes us to our losers and dropouts, and in the latter group there’s a few notable ones, specifically in country with ‘World On Fire’ by Nate Smith clinching its year-end list spot and ‘The Painter’ by Cody Johnson likely being very close; ‘Standing Next To You’ by Jungkook is going to fall well short. The losers are not remotely surprising here either: off the big remix ‘act ii: date @ 8’ by 4batz and Drake slid to 19, ‘Murder On The Dancefloor’ by Sophie Ellis-Bextor is gracefully falling off at 86, and the rest are all from Ariana Grande’s album bomb. So, from the top: ‘the boy is mine’ at 34, ‘yes, and?’ at 36, ‘supernatural’ at 40, ‘eternal sunshine’ at 49, ‘bye’ at 52, ‘true story’ at 66, ‘don’t wanna break up again’ at 68, ‘imperfect for you’ at 72, ‘intro (end of the world)’ at 79, and ‘i wish i hated you’ at 85; honestly, without TikTok promo, the fact so much of this album stuck around is kind of impressive, seems like a record that feels more memorable than some have indicated.

So what’s now filling in the gaps? Well, let’s start with the returns… all one of them, as ‘We Don’t Fight Anymore’ by Carly Pearce and Chris Stapleton rides its residual radio back again to 100, but the gains appear more interesting, especially as the majority of them are in country. Riding off the debut we have ‘Back Then Right Now’ by Tyler Hubbard up to 83 and ‘Austin’ by Dasha at 59 - she’s on Warner, she can leverage TikTok here - and alongside them thanks to Nashville radio and residual album bomb losses around them, ‘Tuscon Too Late’ by Jordan Davis is up to 81, ‘Burn It Down’ by Parker McCollum rebounded from its losses to 42, and ‘Man Made A Bar’ by Morgan Wallen and Eric Church hit 28. Then we had some album releases contributing to growth, like for ‘Never Lose Me’ by Flo Milli at 15 and ‘Selfish’ by Justin Timberlake to 30 - I’ll admit I was a bit surprised by Timberlake’s gains but he is on RCA and he’s got name recognition - and ‘End Of Beginning’ by Djo continues to rocket up to 11; again, if you have TikTok promo right now, you can take advantage of Universal’s abasence. The last few are kind of scattered here: ‘Mmhmm’ by BigXThaPlug rose to 70 - largely independent, he’s got TikTok and streaming traction - ‘Bandit’ by Don Toliver hit 60 - he’s on Atlantic, that’s seeing similar results - ‘Scared To Start’ by Michael Marcagi hit 56 - chalk that up to Warner trying to fill the Noah Kahan gap while Kahan is stuck under Universal - and ‘Get In With Me’ by Bossman Dlow at 50 - he’s on Alamo and with his new single this week, we might actually have credible groundswell here.

But that leads to our list of new arrivals where I have no clue how long any of them will last given what’s to come…

98. ‘Gata Only’ by FloyyMenor & Cris Mj - It’s always interesting to look over my records and recognize that there are Latino acts I’ve discussed before and I can’t remotely remember when it happened - in this case, it’s for Cris Mj, a Chilean act who saw worldwide success in 2022 with a song that Karol G remixed last year and I covered last year. This is a collaboration with another Chilean artist, a remix of his original version of this song from late last year… and wow, I don’t care for this at all, two guys smothered in watery vocal filters that only diminish personality with against a faded melody, stock reggaeton beat, and truly awful squealing synths, where their brand of being infatuated is wanting to abduct this girl! Seriously, it’s mentioned multiple times off the refrain, and even if it’s trying to play coy with this girl kind of being into it as she shakes her ass for TikTok, by the end of the one verse it’s implied she’s kind of over this, and neither of these guys have anywhere close to enough personality to sell ‘climaxing on top of you’! I get what this is trying to do, but it sounds dated and too tedious to justify being this gross - in other words it sucks, next!

96. ‘We Ride’ by Bryan Martin - The funny thing with tracking other charts worldwide is sometimes you’ll see songs linger for months and only cross over months after they may have reached a peak, hence we have Bryan Martin, an indie country act out of Louisiana who landed virality and signed to Average Joes Entertainment… the label founded by Colt Ford, one of the godfathers of bro-country. Ergo I had no clue what to expect going into this… and well, if you were looking for one of those craggy, swaggering country rock cuts that has the polish of something that could probably be pitched to mainstream Nashville, it’s this. And I’ll give Martin this, he’s got the expressive grit in his voice to belt and back up the sharper snarled guitarline and touches of organ, and the hard-living patter at least translates to a solidly catchy hook, even if the list-driven writing feels pretty disposable. If I have an issue with this it comes with the percussion - namely that the cymbals are probably the loudest element in the mix compared to the snare or kick - or the fact that there’s no real muscle to any low-end groove, the bass feels very formless. I’ll give the hook some credit for being somewhat decent but the rest… take it or leave it, this should go harder than it does.

95. ‘Baby Please’ by Ivan Cornejo - And speaking of acts that I mostly forgot until I realize I’ve covered them multiple times - though in this case it might be more because I haven’t liked anything he’s done… well, given that he’s now backed by Interscope at the worst possible time, I guess I should be surprised he was able to return to the Hot 100 at all. But to his credit, for as hyperbolic as the selfish, post-breakup melodrama here is, it’s probably his most interestingly produced song in some time, balancing the gentle acoustics with jingling percussion, swells of organ and strings, thicker backing vocals, and enough reverb to amplify the angst and loneliness at its core; the whining can be a lot, but it’s better executed here at least. I don’t expect it to really last given what’s coming, but as it is… I mean, my record with this guy isn’t good, and this is tolerable, I’ll take that as a win.

93. ‘Mr. Pot Scraper’ by BossMan Dlow - alright, it looks like Bossman Dlow’s momentum is contributing to more songs charting - kind of wish I liked his breakthrough single more, but hey, maybe this new one would work? Well, the production is more interesting - that staccato guitar line, more of a groove alongside the keys and bells and brittle trap percussion, there’s a solid melodic hook here… and look, I get Bossman Dlow’s appeal, his drawl and slightly offbeat delivery feels distinctive at the very least, even if for me it can come across as pretty clumsy when the bars themselves are nothing special. I think that’s my frustration with him, the flexing is just so bog-standard that it doesn’t match the personality in his delivery, especially when you’re only getting one verse. Overall… yeah, the production is better and I think the hook has a bit more character… but I’m sorry, I’m still not impressed.

76. ‘Deeper Well’ by Kacey Musgraves - …look, don’t get it twisted, I’m happy Kacey Musgraves is charting again on her own. I’m happy that her album got enough attention for the title track to hit the Hot 100 even if it’s likely going to only be here one week with the album bombs coming and being stuck on MCA Nashville with no TikTok promo coming, to say nothing of radio. And I do like her album, even if I wouldn’t put it alongside her peak material… shame that while this song is good, it’s by no means my favourite from the album. Now it’s far from bad: the gentle soft-focus acoustic guitar against Kacey’s very close multi-tracked vocals are effective at capturing the ethereal vibe, although they feel a little too touched up than they need to be, and I like how the song picks up that echoing choral presence amidst the weird flutters at the end of the hook. But I think the content is what keeps me at a distance here: sure, in one’s healing journey cutting out toxic people and smoking too much might be the right steps, and I like that the song isn’t that judgemental about them or herself… but then you get that bridge where she talks about growing up where there were folks who thought the earth is flat and while she obviously knows better it’s okay they believe that, and no, being just nonjudgemental about ignorance because ‘nobody can know everything man’ is recklessly privileged, and I know Kacey knows better. Yes, I know she probably didn’t think it that far through… which might as well be my big issue with the album as a whole, and for this… look, it’s fine, but it should be better.

65. ‘FRI(END)S’ by V - I don’t know why I continue to be surprised that V can chart on his own with singles - I kind of wish they had more staying power, they tend to debut well thanks to sales and then sink fast, so with this… okay, I’m not against him going for a more soulful brand of R&B as he tries to convince this girl to put the ‘end’ in ‘friends’, but what in god’s name is this production? It sounds like it’s going for an old-school soul progression with that bassline, but the vocals sound like they’re pressed through a half dozen different filters around the weedy melodies and screechy backing chorus, which only piles in the overdubs for the final hook and it doesn’t work at all; part of V’s strength is his singing, why does this?! Apparently the producers of this song worked with Joji for ‘Glimpse Of Us’, which mystifies me because you’d think between them they’d manage to have some actual subtlety instead of this clunky mess, so… man, I normally like the brand of maturity V has brought to the Hot 100 before, but this is not it - not good.

54. ‘Prada Dem’ by Gunna ft. Offset - Credit to Gunna for being able to capitalize on momentum with another single ready to go - and hell, I liked ‘Bittersweet’ a decent bit more than I thought I would, while I didn’t expect this to be that interesting, with Offset assisting it could be decent. Shame that it’s not, not really - between the hazy minor key flutters trying to evoke some elegance against the stock trap percussion, Gunna is in stock flexing mode, with the only two remotely interesting lines being his assertion that he didn’t snitch - honestly, one of the few times he’s been direct about it - and a poop bar. And sadly while Offset’s flow is generally fine, the mixing seems to imply he recorded it in a different state and the content is nothing to write home about. Honestly, while Gunna has seen a comeback, what will ultimately be his downfall is probably more just sliding into the background and getting boring, and with cuts like this… it’s very possible.

23. ‘Get It Sexyy’ by Sexyy Red - I wish there could be a nuanced conversation about Sexyy Red - I’m not really a fan because of technical issues with her flow and a swathe of women in rap who can do her brand of content much better, but that tends to get lumped in with folks who hate her brand of rap for inconsistent, misogynist, and generally stupid reasons. To her credit, she’s less sloppy than she used to be - the flows here are basic, but she’s making up for it with attitude and Tay Keith’s beat goes pretty hard, and I actually liked the melodic backing vocals on the first verse… that she ditches for a nursery rhyme flow on the second and her limitations ring through again. You can very clearly tell this is built for a larger stage for people to shout back lines when they drop the beat - the song doesn’t have much of a hook - and I can imagine it being effective in that lane, especially as her label situation doesn’t introduce a ton of competition, but I don’t hear the wild creativity that fans have cited which means I’m lukewarm on this at best, and she’s not a good enough MC compared to Meg or Flo Milli or…

9. ‘Enough (Miami)’ by Cardi B - Okay, this has to be the Cardi B album rollout, right? We’ve got promo singles that are getting staggered effectively, she’s on a label that has access to TikTok, this should work, right? Honestly… maybe it’s a week where I’ve been really underwhelmed, but I like this a lot more than ‘Like What (Freestyle)’, this feels like a single that can work. The wiry synth bass against the trap percussion and hollowed out haze behind Cardi, and while the wiry synth spurts on the hook aren’t my thing, Cardi sounding engaged and hungry is what I was looking to hear. Yes, it’s a flex on the haters - not always her best lane - but her quirkier sense of humour comes out, especially on the second verse where her flow varies a little more… although yes, those are absolutely some inflections she owes Nicki Minaj. Is it Cardi’s best song, no - I think the extraneous flourishes on the hook and the Crime Mob interpolation doesn’t quite work as well as I hoping - but in the never-ending list of singles to rollout for this album, I think this is one of the better ones.

In fact… screw it, it’s getting best of the week, with ‘Deeper Well’ by Kacey Musgraves getting the Honourable Mention. Worst of the week is going to ‘Gata Only’ by Cris Mj and Floyymenor, with Dishonourable Mention for ‘FRI(END)S’ by V, that track should be way better than it is. But next week, between Metro Boomin and Olivia Rodrigo and more, it’s going to be wild, stay tuned for that…