billboard BREAKDOWN - hot 100 - march 2, 2024

I’ve talked before about weeks that feel… deceptive on the Hot 100, where it might seem like there’s not much going on but there’s a bigger story - this is one of those weeks. Sure, there’s a predictable new #1 and we are in the aftermath of an album bomb that’s unfortunately taking its time exiting the charts, but there’s an asterisk you can attach to its ‘longevity’ beyond just the ever-so-charming fandom, which is a lot bigger than just that artist. Indeed, if there’s a story about 2024 that’s not getting enough coverage, it’s the ongoing standoff between TikTok and Universal Music Group, where the latter has been nudging back the release dates of their acts to not totally kneecap their promotion. Unfortunately this standoff is not breaking, because as of this morning the publishing division of Universal is now pulling their catalog of songwriters off of TikTok as of March 1, which casts a much broader net and will probably hit acts who are signed to other labels but their writers and their publishing are held by Universal - estimates run that this is a majority of the music industry and we really won’t be able to identify everyone who is impacted until it happens, it’s not normally well-circulated who owns whose publishing. Thus far it’s not stopping TikTok, but the knock-on effect is that any Universal act will be struggling for viral promo for existing music while being held back on major releases.

So let’s consider how this has impacted the top 10 - with the acknowledgement that the publishing knock-on effect has not yet been fully realized - and you don’t have to look too far: our new #1 as predicted, ‘Texas Hold’em’ by Beyonce - who is signed to Parkwood/Columbia, under Sony. Granted, when her sales, streaming, and surging radio are already in action, this isn’t surprising, but nobody’s turning down the advantage. And she beat out ‘Lovin On Me’ by Jack Harlow at #2 - he saw streaming losses and a really inconsistent week on the radio, but dominance there and being signed to Atlantic - under Warner - gives him insulation. Next we have ‘Lose Control’ by Teddy Swims rising to #3 - a really good streaming and sales week plus a fresh radio push plus being under Warner gives him tangible traction, especially leaping over ‘Carnival’ by Kanye West and Ty Dolla $ign, featuring Rich The Kid and Playboi Carti. Now it only fell to #4 because its streaming is ridiculous, but Kanye now has his own deal, so he and his album has some insulation from Def Jam which is under Universal. Next we have 'Beautiful Things’ by Benson Boone at #5, who finally has some radio momentum to match his streaming, but he’s getting beaten on the margins here - and again, he’s under Warner as well. Next we have ‘Snooze’ by SZA at #6 - kind of wavering success on the radio and streaming is mostly stable, and as much as I hate RCA these days, they’re under Sony and for now she’s protected… but apparently Universal has a hand in her publishing, so with ‘Snooze’ already on the decline, it might get faster. Now ‘Cruel Summer’ by Taylor Swift at #7 is an anomaly - she’s on Republic, that’s under Universal, but she’s also Taylor Swift and can ride out radio inertia here - but it does open a small window for ‘greedy’ by Tate McRae up to #8, where she had a shockingly decent radio week and pickups on streaming… and what do you know, she’s on RCA as well. Then there’s ‘I Remember Everything’ by Zach Bryan and Kacey Musgraves down to #9 - he’s on Warner and thus has some level of protection, but radio has never taken to this and streaming took a dip, it happens. Finally, ‘Agora Hills’ by Doja Cat creeps back into the top 10 because her radio has just never gone away - again, RCA, that matters. I’m not saying it’s the only impact on chart position now or going forward, but we’re looking at a sizable majority that have no Universal connection, especially up-and-coming acts, compared to around this time last year where over half of them did.

This takes us to our losers and dropouts, where obviously the big story is the delayed collapse of Vultures 1 - and again, so much of the movement of the Hot 100 is based on larger consumer trends and factors, I don’t want to make too much out of the only notable songs to leave the Hot 100 this week - ‘Different Round Here’ by Riley Green and Luke Combs, and ‘We Don’t Fight Anymore’ by Carly Pearce and Chris Stapleton - are both tied to Big Machine, which rolls up under Universal, especially as about half of Kanye and Ty Dolla $ign’s album bomb entries did fall off and many fell back. But you can argue that more of them should have seen bigger losses given encroaching competition - not to say they didn’t, as ‘Burn’ fell to 53, ‘Fuk Sumn’ hit 57, ‘Back To Me’ hit 59, ‘Vultures’ with Lil Durk and Bump J hit 85, ‘Do It’ hit 94, and ‘Talking’ with North West fell to 96. Outside of those, Noah Kahan saw some expected losses with ‘Forever’ falling off the debut to 73 and ‘Norther Attitude’ with Hozier at 100 - not for nothing, there’s a Universal connection there, as well as for ‘Standing Next To You’ by Jungkook losing all of its momentum at 81, although you can tie some of that to Usher’s losses with ‘Yeah!’ with Lil Jon and Ludacris somehow lasting a second week at 47 and ‘Good Good’ with Summer Walker and 21 Savage at 49. Finally, ‘16 Carriages’ by Beyonce dropped off the debut to 55 - I’d chalk this up to no larger radio push and streaming/sales falling back, it’s clearly a b-side to ‘Texas Hold’em’ anyway.

This takes us to our returns and gains, where again, I don’t want to make this all about Universal’s standoff with TikTok… but in our returns, it’s very telling that the majority are not affiliated: ‘Home’ by Good Neighbours at 84 is independent, so is ‘Wondering Why’ by The Red Clay Strays at 99, ‘Oklahoma Smokeshow’ by Zach Bryan at 92 is under Warner, so is ‘Where It Ends’ by Bailey Zimmerman at 98, and ‘Sensational’ by Chris Brown ft. Davido and Lojay, he’s tied to RCA. The two exceptions would be ‘Worth It’ by Offset and Don Toliver at 95 - Capitol/Motown, both owned by Universal - and ‘Wildflowers and Wild Horses’ by Lainey Wilson back big to 78 - she’s on Broken Bow, distributed by Universal. And then you take a look at the radio numbers - both of them have already been shipped and are doing well there, which is some insulation from needing TikTok as they’re both songs from last year that have establishment momentum. But where all of this will really show up is in our gains, most of which you can chalk up to rebounds from the album bomb so it’s not going to be an all-purpose answer. But there’s nearly always an explanation - ‘yes, and?’ by Ariana Grande back at 11 is because of the Mariah remix which you can argue should have done more, ‘Rich Baby Daddy’ by Drake, SZA and Sexyy Red got to 31 on the video, and the pickups for ‘One Of The Girls’ by The Weeknd, JENNIE, and Lily Rose Depp to 58, ‘Murder On The Dance Floor’ by Sophie Ellis Bextor to 63 and ‘You Broke My Heart’ by Drake at 64, you could chalk them up to just positional shifts rather than consistent viral strength, especially if they already have radio. Speaking of which, Nashville radio is a big factor in stability when you see pickups for ‘TRUCK BED’ by HARDY at 33, ‘World On Fire’ by Nate Smith at 46, ‘Burn It Down’ by Parker McCollum at 48, ‘Man Made A Bar’ by Morgan Wallen ft. Eric Church at 54, ‘23’ by Chayce Beckham at 62, and ‘I Can Feel It’ by Kane Brown at 69 - about half of these have some ties to a Universal-affiliated label, but you’re talking about acts who have establishment traction and Music Row’s ties to radio, they still would use TikTok but this is a cushion. Outside of that… ‘Soak City (Do It)’ by 310babii is up to 72 - tied to EMPIRE, which despite being an “indie” label can take a flying leap with their extralegal approach to copyright that wouldn’t remotely hold up in court and they know it - and ‘Praise Jah In The Moonlight’ by YG Marley up to 39 which has streaming momentum and independence. The one big outlier here for me is ‘Feather’ by Sabrina Carpenter - there is a Universal connection and she saw a boost to 29… but she’s not relying on streaming at all, just radio. Now this will be a problem for her if she’s looking for that next boost - I don’t even like Sabrina Carpenter and I feel for her, if I’m her management after years of trying to get mainstream traction and finally seeing success, this is probably infuriating - but at least for now, there’s some stability.

This takes us to the new arrivals… and for nearly all of them, the Universal / TikTok tension is a factor in where they landed, maybe more than you expect. So let’s start with…

93. ‘Tu Name’ by Fuerza Regida - Wouldn’t it be just our luck that we’re starting with an act on Sony Music Latin who’ll probably see a boost for Universal’s absence and also makes music I don’t like! And this is exactly what you’d expect from Fuerza Regida - tinny rattling guitars that are trying for a binaural balance and utterly fail, really flatly produced vocal overlays, and a strikingly pissy song about slagging off an ex through a string of insults, hooking up with other women, and saying that he would forget her name, which I’m not sure I believe given the performance. And I get that there’s a place for songs this obnoxious, but I normally prefer them better produced - it’s not the worst Fuerza Regida song because there’s not staccato farting horns, but that doesn’t say much, I’d skip it.

89. ‘Psycho CEO’ by Yeat - So now onto the meat of things, and the artist I’d argue got screwed more by the Universal / TikTok standoff than I think many recognized. Because Yeat built viral traction on TikTok, he’s a streaming-first artist with a younger audience, so when despite more tangible groundswell and even some critical praise I don’t think anyone expected his streaming numbers underperformed, that seemed really weird… and then you realize that he’s signed to Capitol, a subsidiary of Universal, which likely blunted any viral spread. And this is coming from someone who doesn’t particularly like this song: the increased budget definitely shows up in the spacey, oily gloss drizzled all over the blocky beat that’s been cleaned up considerably, which seems to be a play for broader accessibility but really starts testing my patience with those tinny squeals. And it’s not like there’s much in the way of redeemable content - putting aside how tactless it is to embrace the ‘psycho CEO’ branding in 2024 especially alongside some future dystopia, I don’t even get much of a sense of menace when a lot of the flexing feels very by-the-numbers, with the most notable line being ‘Mr. Worldwide on this coat’ - that’s Pitbull’s thing and you don’t have a quarter of his charisma, Yeat! It feels like a more polished version of Yeat… which isn’t exactly promising, and still isn’t my thing.

82. ‘Bittersweet’ by Gunna - You know, after Gunna’s project last year saw more traction than anyone could have expected, I was curious what the next step would be, especially as he’s still on 300, which is under Warner and gives him a little flexibility. Granted, it’s not a lot of help for Gunna because of how many other rappers have beef or refuse to work with him in the fallout of the YSL trial - of which at this point I don’t think any testimony from Gunna is seriously shifting the needle of that circus - so instead we get this, a rather sad song where Gunna reflects on the success he’s received… at the cost of friendships that he wants to make right, where he’s choosing not to diss them directly even as they reference him for clout chasing. And if anything Gunna’s performance actually comes through well here - I’m not crazy about how his flow feels a bit sloppy, but there’s an exhaustion to each remark that feels tangible where he genuinely wants to rebuild, but he knows it’s not likely. And I like the production too - the somber electric guitar and bass, the spare cymbals around the snap that actually sound really nice, this is a song built for brooding and it really lands effectively; I still think it’s goddamn weird that Gunna somehow found an emotional core at his lowest point and is making his most evocative music… but yeah, this is really damn good, give it a shot.

61. ‘Contigo’ by Karol G & Tiesto - So now we’ve reached the big exception to the Universal conversation, the big debut that feels the most out of place: Karol G is on Interscope, that rolls up to Universal, she’s got a solid debut here, what’s going on? Well, I’d say there are two caveats: one, she’s an international act who saw even better traction on the global charts, and like it or not, as global as TikTok is, the UMG fight seems more concentrated on an English-speaking battleground; and two, without this TikTok fight, I’d argue that she should have debuted higher: Karol G got two album bombs just last year, she’s a bonafide star that does not get as much attention as she probably should! So I was actually excited to hear this… and maybe I shouldn’t have been, because the obvious sample interpolations have gone global, in this case a very obvious melodic flip of Leona Lewis’ ‘Bleeding Love’, paired with the wiry synth bass and sharper percussion around a pitch-shifted drop. And maybe some of this is my nostalgia talking, but I remember really liking how visceral ‘Bleeding Love’ felt, and the slicker, prettier performance feels like a misstep. It’s not helped by the song playing the same arc as well - a love and breakup she’s taking really hard - because I’m reminded of the better version of this melody and this… just isn’t it. It’s not precisely bad, but if it winds up underperforming in the weeks to come… I’m not sure I’d complain.

51. ‘End Of Beginning’ by Djo - So if you’re not at all familiar with this guy, here’s a primer: this is Joe Keery, he’s an actor made famous thanks to Stranger Things, he’s seen some additional roles, but he’s also had a modest career as a musician, first in the psych-rock band Post Animal and now as a solo act who has put out two albums in 2019 and 2022. Now this is a song that was on that second album - distributed by AWAL so he’s got some insulation here too - and… well, based off of those synths and underlying groove paired with his careful vocal overdubs, the vibe I’m getting is Tame Impala meets Harry Styles doing a Bowie impression. And that’s not a bad thing, per se - the 80s synths are a bit offkilter to balance against the steady groove where the drums feel a bit underweight, but as the guitars layer into the hook, it does build some brittle swell that kind of fits for the lyrical themes of growth and transformation… and then once the bridge seems primed to really explode, it strips back to the chorus and I’m left distinctly unsatisfied, a good crescendo that just wasn’t used! I dunno, I hear the potential, and I get why it might have caught traction… I just feel like it could have been more.

42. ‘Breathe’ by Yeat - Before I go on with what is probably Yeat’s best hope to stick around on the charts, let me emphasize one thing with the Universal / Tiktok feud: the acts I’m covering on the Hot 100 right now are probably going to be just fine in the end, and while it does legitimately suck that an executive dickwaving contest is going to stymie Yeat’s chart momentum, folks who chart at all are a tiny fraction of the music industry and those signed to UMG and all the subsidiaries. Ergo I’m not particularly interested in a grudge someone might have against Tiktok or on the flipside any fandom nonsense when this is a systemic issue that has the potential to wreck a lot of unfortunate artists who sign to a major label with hope only to get lost in the tide. I bring this up… even as I don’t think that Yeat making a Travis Scott ripoff here is all that interesting, from the oily pulsating groove, fizzy percussion, and crushing bass, to his deeper and more aggressive flow and adlibs. Granted, I do like this more than most Travis Scott songs these days - yeah, the content is utterly disposable as Yeat continues to play in his villain arc, but the pitch-shifted warble around his post-chorus is actually pretty sticky, and most importantly there’s a sense of tempo, where Yeat doesn’t get bogged down in his own wallowing. I’m not going to call this great… but it’s probably the most I’ve liked a Yeat song that I’ve heard, and if that new album has more like this… well, now I’m even more annoyed with the meddling at the top beyond everyone’s control.

32. ‘Whatever She Wants’ by Bryson Tiller - See, this is the other side of this feud, you have Bryson Tiller under RCA, who hasn’t had a charting hit in the United States since 2020 despite a string of mixtapes the past four years, coincidentally has a song go viral late last year and now gets a debut that’s frankly better than one might expect, especially as he hit the ground running on streaming. Now granted, the song being pretty decent helps matters: the elegant sample loop behind the popping twinkle and knock of the percussion is a solid groove and a bit better mastered than I expected - I especially like that hammering percussion behind the first verse - and Tiller can handle a trap flow and adlibs pretty well - there’s less singing than you might expect, but he sounds pretty engaged, borderline exasperated at himself that this girl can get whatever she wants out of him before the song turns into brand name porn. But the hook is really sticky, there’s tangible swagger… I’m no big Bryson Tiller fan, but this is pretty good - I don’t mind it.

27. ‘Training Season’ by Dua Lipa - I’m not sure how to feel about Dua Lipa’s most recent singles rollout - ‘Houdini’ is a really damn good song, but it’s not really been one I seek out; very solid in her lane and I find more to like it with more listens, but not really rising to her top tier. But hey, I had that same issue with ‘Don’t Start Now’ and it took until ‘Physical’ to really pull me in - apparently this was the song that was originally planned as the big comeback but issues around the music video pushed it into the second single slot… and that might have been smart, because this isn’t quite convincing me either. Don’t get me wrong, there’s a lot to like about this - Dua Lipa sounds great, the groove has a lot of brittle acoustic swing that would almost be giving me spaghetti western rollick if it had a bit more muscle, and Kevin Parker’s synth swell and blending behind her pops really effectively after the post-chorus and during the bridge as the pianos cascade. And I really like the content - sometimes you’re looking for someone to hook up or fall for, you don’t want there to be a training season to find the right groove, you want the chemistry to hit the ground running - but if you’re going to take that lyrical arc, maybe have a hook that doesn’t feel so brittle and flighty, that could actually pay off that crescendo on the bridge and hit like a ton of bricks? This is a song that probably should go as hard as ‘Physical’, but the approach to the hook was the same as ‘Break My Heart’, and that’s just a compositional misstep. Don’t get me wrong, there’s a lot to like here… but I know Dua Lipa has the formula to make this over the top, and while you might think being on Warner would give her a boost, guess whose publishing is tied up at Universal, which neuters her promo as well?

…I mean, I guess at the end I could give it best of the week, but I’m not sure that moves the promo needle here, with Honourable Mention going to ‘Bittersweet’ by Gunna - caught me a bit by surprise, but I did really like it. Worst of the week, ‘Tu Name’ by Fuerza Regida, with ‘Psycho CEO’ by Yeat as the Dishonourable Mention - my sympathies only go so far here, it happens. Next week… again, I just don’t know, we could be heading into choppy waters the more songs get yanked off TikTok, and it’s going to take a few weeks to fully hear the impact, so stay tuned for that…