billboard BREAKDOWN - hot 100 - january 20, 2024

So remember how I said last week that things were looking to pick up for 2024, at least compared to previous years? Yeah, I think we might have to put a damper on that, at least for this week, which was relatively uneventful, not that I’m complaining. But it also looks to be the case for next week as well - yeah, Ariana Grande is going to have some tangible impact and we’re probably getting a 21 Savage album bomb, but to be charitable, early numbers suggest the success might be scattershot, or at least slower to move.

And nowhere does that feel more apparent than in our top ten, where for another week ‘Lovin On Me’ by Jack Harlow held the #1. And it will almost certainly be competitive for the top spot against Ariana Grande next week, especially as it’s dominant on streaming and still has radio momentum, this may come down to a margin. What won’t be competitive is ‘Cruel Summer’ by Taylor Swift at #2 - streams are down and radio has peaked, I can see this getting rotated out relatively quickly, especially given that we’re in the middle of winter. Then we have ‘greedy’ at #3, which was also down on streams and had a weirdly unstable radio progression, where I’d say this could open a door for ‘I Remember Everything’ by Zach Bryan ft. Kacey Musgraves at #4 given how stable its streaming is, but that would involve it getting any larger radio traction at all, and that’s just not happening. It did overtake ‘Paint The Town Red’ by Doja Cat at #5, who again, unstable radio week as the streams dropped back, which looks to also be the story for ‘Snooze’ by SZA holding at #6. Then we have ‘Water’ by Tyla at #7, which is really trying to make a run for the top radio spot but just does not have enough streaming to make a push… but now we have our first new arrival into our top ten, and one that I’m frankly shocked has done as well as it has: ‘Lose Control’ by Teddy Swims at #8! It’s got good sales and streaming, and while radio is lagging - which you’d expect for a relative no-name - it probably has more traction that you’d otherwise predict, this might become a thing for a bit. It overtook ‘Agora Hills’ by Doja Cat up to #9 - which is trying to make a radio run and seems at least somewhat stable on streaming - and ‘Last Night’ by Morgan Wallen at #10, which actually saw a sharp drop on streaming as the radio keeps trying to dump this quickly - good riddance.

And that leads naturally to our losers and dropouts… and honestly, we don’t have many at all in either group. For the dropouts, ‘Dial Drunk’ by Noah Kahan and Post Malone hit recurrence - may also be true for ‘QIONA’ by Karol G and Peso Pluma as well - and for losers… yeah, not a lot here either. I’m certainly not going to complain much that ‘Mind On You’ by George Birge falling back to 73 or ‘Can’t Have Mine’ by Dylan Scott going to 95 off the return, and ‘Rompe La Dompe’ by Peso Pluma, Junior H, and Oscar Maydon skidding to 94 off the debut isn’t surprising. I will say I’m a bit depressed ‘You’re Losing Me’ by Taylor Swift just can’t get anything going at 84, but for what’s effectively a bonus track, it’s not exactly surprising either.

And the returns and gains… well, it’s also kind of uneven. In the former group, we got a few older country songs getting a boost with ‘Where It Ends’ by Bailey Zimmerman at 99 and ‘Mamaw’s House’ by Thomas Rhett and Morgan Wallen back at 88, as well as ‘Sabor Fresa’ by Fuerza Regida nabbing another week at 97 - joy. But the gains are a bit more interesting, starting off the debut with ‘Murder On The Dancefloor’ by Sophie Ellis-Bextor getting a huge boost to 58 off the debut from last week - guess this is getting more viral momentum than I expected! What doesn’t surprise me is ‘La Diabla’ by Xavi with still more momentum up to 22, and ‘Feather’ by Sabrina Carpenter close behind at 46. And finally, the returns that are picking up traction… are really a mixed bag, let’s be real: I like ‘Mmhmmm’ by BigXThaPlug up to 65, but if it’s coming with ‘Y Lloro’ by Junior H at 79 and ‘MY EYES’ by Travis Scott at 82, I’m not exactly thrilled.

And from there, we only have four new arrivals this week, so let’s get this started with…

100. ‘IDGAF’ by Tee Grizzley, Mariah The Scientist & Chris Brown - …the last time I talked about Tee Grizzley was back in 2017 with ‘First Day Out’, and since then he has a following, but it’s never really had that charting crossover until now, where I have to imagine the Chris Brown cosign is doing some work. And… this is a bit of a weird one: Tee Grizzley and Chris Brown play exes that want their girl back, and Mariah The Scientist plays the girl who already has a new partner, is seeing these guys cheat on their partners for her, and she just completely blows them off in both the hook and her verse! It’s actually a little startling how much she’s not interested in any of these hookups - well, one of them would be with Chris Brown, I can’t blame her - but there’s actually very little ambiguity here or teasing, and I don’t know how anyone outside of Mariah The Scientist comes off well! Granted, I think the production is okay with the sombre pianos, guitar flourishes, and pretty well-balanced trap percussion, but that only highlights how douchey the guys appear - props to Mariah The Scientist getting her first charting hit, I’ll take more of her please… and nobody else here.

98. ‘When It Comes To You’ by Fridayy - So since I started seeing Fridayy’s name on credits, especially around Lil Baby, I’ve been anticipating his solo crossover, with this being a song from his 2023 album. And… well, aside from being reminded a lot of Kid Cudi with his vocal timbre and production and overdubs, I thought this was pretty good - the guitars and trap percussion are well-balanced, the choral backing behind the hook gives an otherwise spare song some real swell, and the content is has some weight in recognizing he fell too hard but wasn’t able to open up effectively for this girl and now is desperately hoping she’ll give him a chance to do so. A bit of a last-ditch effort, and I don’t love how he’s trying to convince her to ‘open her mind for a clearer view’ - it feels like he’s trying to flip the script on her - but as a whole… yeah, a good little song, I like it.

89. ‘Coal’ by Dylan Gossett - I’ve said before how it can be a little revealing when an indie country act shows up on the charts without making a ton of buzz in the scene, so enter Dylan Gossett, who already seems backed by Big Loud and Mercury/Republic with his EP from last year, with this self-produced acoustic song seeing some viral traction. And… this might be a sign that those folks trying to rip off Zach Bryan might struggle a bit, because when it’s just you and an acoustic guitar, even if you have a good voice the songwriting will face higher scrutiny - and man, this one strikes a sour note. To my initial surprise ‘coal’ is not referenced because of any Appalachian connection, it’s a comparison of how sometimes pressure makes diamonds, but he’s just coal, where he’s trying to get clean and face a little good luck, but the world is not going his way, to the point where he doesn’t even see much point in God or the devil… and then you realize that all of this is rooted in him getting dumped because he wasn’t sober, and the bridge is a plea for her to come back. And look, I get wanting a relationship - I’m single right now, being on your own can absolutely suck - but I really don’t like how he frames his misfortune with relationships, as if going through tough times entitles him to a relationship, as if the unkempt misery of sobriety means he’s put in the work and feels petulant that there’s no reward. And I get why this sentiment might be relatable on some level, but it’s not healthy nor conducive to the relationship he wants, and there’s no self-awareness to indicate that - and when the song is otherwise so stripped down, you can’t ignore it either. So this might surprise some people, but I don’t care for this at all - next!

77. ‘Act II: Date @ 8’ by 4Batz - Not gonna lie, I had no idea who 4batz was before this - as of now, he’s a singer out of Dallas, it looks like he has precisely three songs, seems to be unsigned, and yet has caught some viral traction with this song that runs for less than two minutes with a few big cosigns. And… honestly, I don’t hear it - his voice feels very boyish and underwhelming against the softer guitar and cheap percussion, and while the mix is generally smooth outside of that chopped’n’screwed outro, there’s nothing really worth noting in the content - he’s buying this girl things and taking her on a date, apparently while she’s already in a relationship, and the entire song just feels very token, as if this is what has to happen to get a date where it’s not even implied there’s any connection or closeness. It feels like a draft built to go viral on TikTok, but at its most underwhelming - I’m gonna forget this exists in record time.

And that’s our week… bit of an odd one, not gonna lie, but the best and worst fall out easily, with Fridayy getting the top spot for ‘When It Comes To You’ and Dylan Gossett getting worst of the week for ‘Coal’ - I know folks might be surprised, but that song just really hit a bad note for me. Next week is looking to be much busier - stay tuned!