billboard BREAKDOWN - hot 100 - march 16, 2024

As a critic who occasionally does some journalism here, I think it’s prudent to be careful on weeks like this, because there’s one big story that unfortunately overshadows the sparse list of new arrivals we have. And I think there’s generally a tendency to overreact or underreact in cases like this - I could go on an extended tirade, or I could brush it off as no big deal, where in reality the discussion requires layers and truth be told, I did not initially predict it would have the staying power it does, which is a much darker reflection on an audience than I think they want to hear; they were the ones who got it here, and thus they have to reap what they sow.

So with that stage established, our top ten, where running almost entirely on streaming with a last ditch boost of sales, ‘Carnival’ by Kanye West & Ty Dolla $ign, featuring Rich The Kid and Playboi Carti, at #1. And with this many people behind it, those who are saying they’re only here ironically for the jokes or because ‘the beat and the hook go hard’ or ‘I’m just here for Carti’… y’all aren’t getting away that easy from all of this. You have Rich The Kid saying he ‘pull up in the trenches like Columbine’ - that’s right, one of the least interesting mainstream rappers of the mid-2010s who drops a forgettable verse here comparing himself to a school shooter, and he’s not as dubiously good as when Lil Yachty did it on ‘Broccoli’ in 2016 - Ty Dolla $ign going through the motions but with a line about how girls want to fuck his car, and Playboi Carti… honestly has nowhere close to the energy he needs to sell this bland flexing buried midway back where he compares his swag to a disease… I unironically agree with that, Iggy Azalea’s baby daddy and notable abuser made one point. But alongside those and this oily, clunky mix leaning hard on its choir to masquerade as a jock jam, alongside sampling the ‘Hell of a Life’ riff because Kanye is nothing without tainting his legacy, he compares himself to R. Kelly and Bill Cosby who were ‘cancelled’ like him - he really wants you to ignore the context of the well-documented sex crimes, including towards minors, how in the former case it was targeted at Aaliyah and often wrapped in gospel iconography, in the latter in respectability politics and conservatism - but also being so rich he’s like Puff Daddy and can pay off the #metoo accusations… and spoilers, I don’t think Diddy’s getting out of his either. But by the final lines, he says he’s doing it for Chris Brown, and references the fact his kids are in a fake school - probably smart you cut yourself off there given all the allegations around Donda Academy - and it snaps into place: we have documented photographic evidence of when Chris Brown assaulted Rihanna, and how his career just kept on going - he’s literally charting a new single now - this is about the freedom of powerful men to cast doubt on abuse allegations, avoid accountability, their victims be silenced, and then be praised endlessly for it. That is in the text of the song, and they sure as shit aren’t beating the fash allegations now because this is at the roots of how they treat women, and when I look at the audience that unironically endorses this for being a banger and gets big mad whenever I bring up the rest… you’re telling on yourselves, and I do know some of you teenage white boys will grow out of this; I was alive for the late 90s, I remember the shock rap of that era, I know some of this is built for pure provocation, just entertainment - a carnival, child’s play even. But this is quite literally the definition of adolescent toxic machismo built for the gang rapes of Woodstock 99, insecure grasping at power from weak little men for the perpetually unfuckable wanting to live a fantasy, and the fact that it did go to #1 shows that a certain insufferably loud and privileged demographic has enough obsessive power to push it there regardless of what is being said, just like they did twenty five years ago, in the tradition of this proudly ignorant, reflexively conservative horseshit never going away.

But there’s an asterisk here - because what competition was this lazy posse cut even facing, or will be facing next week when it probably holds the #1? At #2 we have ‘Lose Control’ by Teddy Swims, where Warner pulled out all the stops across sales and the radio, even a last-ditch boost on streaming… and it was just barely not enough; congrats kids, you beat the first single of an act who may not ever have another. Then there’s ‘Lovin On Me’ by Jack Harlow at #3 - a song from last year losing in all categories - and ‘Beautiful Things’ by Benson Boone at #4, where the radio run and is happening but not quite enough to push forward beyond the streaming… god, this shit at the top of the charts is fucking rough. What’s notable here is the sharp dip for ‘Texas Hold’em’ by Beyonce to #5, where her sales did hold firm, but streaming slid hard and she’s just not closing the margins on the radio fast enough. Then we saw a spike for ‘greedy’ by Tate McRae at #6, which saw a modest recovery on streaming to shore up its radio losses, but it held over ‘I Remember Everything’ by Zach Bryan and Kacey Musgraves at #7, where the radio finally gave up even attempting a perfunctory push and left it to its streaming which is still really strong. Then we saw ‘Snooze’ by SZA pick up a bit to #8 - I’m putting this to a weirdly consistent week on the radio and ‘Saturn’ falling out of the top 10, as well as songs around her declining - and that saw a return for the top ten by ‘Agora Hills’ by Doja Cat at #9, even as its radio looks to have peaked. And finally, ‘Cruel Summer’ by Taylor Swift at #10 as she slowly exits with a song from 2019 and being on a label currently locked out of TikTok promo, along with over half of the music industry… y’all see how that impacts how one views the #1, right? I know Kanye’s fanbase loves for nuance to be off the table entirely, but the competition are new acts chasing their first breakthrough, old songs that already peaked with establishment acts tied to questionable label situations, and Beyonce, who already beat you on your debut week. And it’s likely not gonna happen again - Vultures 2 of course didn’t drop on time and he wants y’all to pay cash for it to him directly for the full album when it comes, which a large chunk of his and Playboi Carti’s fanbase have refused to do. That leaves me with two thoughts, the first being that Kanye only adopts a populist cause when he needs the money, and secondly that said fanbases aren’t quite as committed to those values if they’re required to put more tangible cash on the line… which paradoxically is a bit reassuring.

So now that we’re past all of that, let’s focus on the losers and dropouts, where once again the larger label conversation will take precedence. It’s not quite as applicable to our two dropouts which had their respectable runs and will clinch year-end list spots: ‘Dance The Night’ by Dua Lipa and ‘Monaco’ by Bad Bunny. And the losers aren’t really surprising here, with the expected continued drops for ‘16 Carriages’ by Beyonce to 98, ‘yes, and’ by Ariana Grande at 31 - it’ll rebound next week for her album, bet on it, and ‘Fuk Sumn’ by Kanye West and Ty Dolla $ign at 92 because the rest of the songs on VULTURES 1 really aren’t performing well. Then we had losses from the debuts last week: ‘Holy Smokes’ by Bailey Zimmerman at 73, I’m not surprised it’s not catching on despite a favourable label situation, and ‘Wine Into Whiskey’ by Tucker Wetmore to 100, where indie traction will only get you so far even if you have a boost of virality. Finally, ‘Think U The Shit (Fart)’ by Ice Spice slid to 93, which isn’t surprising given that she’s on Capitol that rolls up to Universal, and the Tiktok feud likely puts a major damper on her promo opportunities.

So let’s head to our returns and gains, where in the former group country shows that they don’t really rely on TikTok as much when Music Row and radio can fill in the gaps, like how ‘We Don’t Fight Anymore’ by Carly Pearce and Chris Stapleton came back to 96 and ‘Creek Will Rise’ by Conner Smith hit 97… and in the case of ‘Wondering Why’ by the Red Clay Strays at 99, they’re independent and have that viral flicker that’s kept them bouncing on and off the charts. Of course, the label controversy is most evident in our gains here, so let’s start off with the continued success with ‘End Of Beginning’ by Djo up to 23 - under AWAL, he’s protected - and ‘Tu Name’ by Fuerza Regida at 66, thank Sony Music Latin for this. Then we have the returns catching fire: ‘Scared To Start’ by Michael Marcagi at 69, thank Warner for that, and ‘MY EYES’ by Travis Scott up to 84, thank Epic for that being under Sony, probably the reason why ‘FE!N’ with Playboi Carti also saw a boost to 48. The rest of our gains are interesting, though: ‘Sensational’ by Chris Brown ft. Lojay and Davido is up to 71 - again, he’s on RCA, he’ll be just fine outside of usual RCA bumbling - ‘Oklahoma Smokeshow’ by Zach Bryan saw another spike to 81 because this song has never picked up consistently, but the big story is ‘Yeah Glo!’ by GloRilla at 49. And it’s interesting because she’s on Interscope, which rolls under Universal so she doesn’t have Tiktok, but her streaming has really taken off… apparently thanks to Apple Music where whatever promo there has really taken hold! And I’m not complaining, it’s a really good song, but it’ll be interesting to see the acts that normally ride Tiktok traction find other ways to get their promotion out, and at least for GloRilla, someone at Interscope managed to tap into streaming again, which speaks to better than expected management - intriguing.

But we actually have a pretty small list of new arrivals this week - thank god - so let’s start off with…

86. ‘Tucson Too Late’ by Jordan Davis - hey look, the only debut here that has a connection to Universal through MCA Nashville… would you be surprised to discover that his song is already backed on Nashville radio and thus TikTok promo doesn’t matter as much? Shame that we’re dealing with Jordan Davis, who in recent years has gotten a little better from his wannabe Sam Hunt reputation as he tries to embrace more maturity and neotraditional tones… so why does this feel a bit like a backslide? Maybe it’s the shuffling tap of that percussion that feels oddly busy compared to any of the hazy guitar leads or how the airy backing vocals just feel a bit too high to blend with Davis’ vocals which have only ever been okay, it’s a little overpolished, which was an early consistent problem with this guy… and kind of a shame because I don’t think the writing is bad, as he’s trying to chase after a girl who is flying out of Tucson and his old clunker of a car isn’t letting him get there on time to maybe win her back. I dunno, I feel like I should like this more than I do - certainly pleasant, but nothing that special; he’s done worse, but he’s also done much better.

74. ‘Doctor (Work It Out)’ by Pharrell & Miley Cyrus - Okay, how to explain this one… apparently, this was a cut from Miley Cyrus’ Bangerz sessions back in 2013, probably in the same sessions where ‘Come Get It Bae’ happened as the single that for some stupid reason replaced ‘FU’ with French Montana which is way better. It first leaked back in 2017, but now that Pharrell is apparently spinning up a new project, it’s been reworked a bit for a new release, and… yeah, I dunno about this one. The slinky bass groove is solid and Miley is certainly game for it against the brittle disco guitar rollick, but when you factor in how canned the vocals can sound alongside the dying fragment of country guitar and increasingly rigid percussion, and the ‘sexy doctor’ routine runs out of gas pretty quickly. It’s better than ‘Come Get It Bae’, at least, mostly because Pharrell stays behind the boards and lets Miley take the lead… but that’s not saying much, can’t say I’m much of a fan. Good groove, not much else.

64. ‘Overcompensate’ by twenty one pilots - Funnily enough, this might be the best possible time for twenty one pilots to break through again: Fueled By Ramen rolls up beneath Warner, enough time has passed for folks to who didn’t like Scaled & Icy to get behind this - those folks are missing out, that album is great and deserves a proper reappraisal - and their leadoff singles tend to at least chart well at first, especially with this one being framed as a ‘welcome back to Trench’; also, if you need a catch-up on the band’s lore, they actually made a video that shows how Trench and Scaled & Icy actually link together and funnily enough it’s not that far removed from the metaphorical connections I traced in my review three years ago; I know some old fans are mad that they’ve actually explained some of this, but it’s nice to validated! So with this, it’s our protagonist possessing the dead body of Nico aka Blurryface - he cares what you think - with an ‘overcompensation’ to retake the darker sounds of Trench with the warping bass alongside the drums and melodic rap rock of Blurryface, along with a healthy dose of real-world references and metatext as all of this has been about twenty one pilots’ being torn between industry pressures and their own wild experimentation, with the whipsaw back and forth highlighting that there’s probably a middle ground that he can control. But that’s the thing, playing the middle can lead to a song that’s more lore reinforcement than strong single - this is no ‘Jumpsuit’ or ‘Shy Away’ or even ‘Stressed Out’. So as it is… I feel like it’s a precursor for stronger music to come, but overall it’s decent, I’ll take it.

38. ‘Like What (Freestyle)’ by Cardi B - okay, apparently there’s a second Cardi B single coming later that’ll follow this up, that has to mean the album rollout is starting, right? Cardi B is on at Atlantic which is under Warner, which means she’ll have all the advantages of TikTok promo when many of her competitors won’t, if she doesn’t strike now there are much bigger problems afoot! And this would be a way to do it with a liberal Missy Elliott and Timbaland sample, a song full of potshots at rivals especially Nicki Minaj - why not go in while she’s down having definitely lost that Megan Thee Stallion beef - and easy flexing, calling it a ‘freestyle’ for the benefit of low expectations for a bigger swing coming. This isn’t surprising - a lot of rappers throw together a freestyle to settle old beef before the album rollout proper - and thus it kind of pains me to say that this is not one of Cardi’s best? And it’s tough to pin down exactly what doesn’t work: the droning melody behind the fizzy percussion and bass knock - I think it’s missing the texture that gave the original ‘She’s A Bitch’ some punch - the hook feels kind of stilted with the ‘like what’ that feels like it’s set up for a call-and-response, the flexes feel a bit token, but I think some of it is just how Cardi’s heart and intensity doesn’t really manifest. She’s still funny - the not getting an unheated pool line made me chuckle - but the last thing I want to hear from Cardi B is that she’s stopped caring or trying, and this doesn’t have that swagger or intensity. I guess it’s fine… but man, I was hoping for more, let’s pray that proper single goes a lot harder.

And that’s a short week - best and worst fall out cleanly, with ‘Overcompensate’ by twenty one pilots snagging the top spot with ‘Doctor’ by Miley Cyrus and Pharrell getting the worst; that groove is not saving it. Next week… Ariana Grande album bomb, if she can fight through the lack of Tiktok promo for a proper shot? We’ll have to see…